Benjamin Qiao

What are the differences between the determinants of the outcomes of senate, gubernatorial, and presidential elections in the United States from the year 2002 onward?

Started June 5, 2024

Abstract or project description

This research paper examines the various factors influencing electoral outcomes across different levels of office: congressional, presidential, and state. Previous research has concluded that local elections are indeed unique in terms of voter preferences and factors influencing those preferences. The previous methods used have relied on surveys; this study utilizes machine learning techniques instead. By developing a predictive model based on economic and social demographics, the research aims to identify the weight of each demographic parameter across different levels of elections and compare these results. This study’s findings confirm that the level of office indeed significantly affects which demographic factors are most influential in predicting electoral outcomes and provides insights into the nuanced ways in which voter behavior and preferences vary by the type of election, contributing to a deeper understanding of electoral dynamics and informing more targeted political strategies.